Affirming the Consequent

What is it?

Assuming you know exactly why someone did something online just because of the outcome.

Why is it bad?

Users often jump to conclusions about why a mod took action or why a bot went offline, assuming the most obvious trigger was the only possible cause, ignoring server maintenance or other rules.

Example in Chat

@adminToday at 5:00 PM

If you get banned, it means you used slurs. You got banned, so you must have used slurs!

@userToday at 5:01 PM

(Ignoring that they could have been banned for spamming).