What the Fallacy?!
The Gambler's Fallacy
The Definition
Believing that past political events dictate the statistical outcome of independent future elections.
The Explanation
Pundits sometimes assume a party 'is due' for a win simply because they have lost several times in a row, ignoring the specific circumstances of the current race.
Political Example
The pundit confidently predicted the challenger would win the safe district, arguing that since the incumbent party had won the last five elections there, 'their luck has to run out eventually.'