Survivorship Bias

The Fallacy

Concentrating on the people or things that 'survived' some process and inadvertently overlooking those that didn't.

Why it's wrong

This is a logical error where we focus on the successes (the 'survivors') and ignore the failures (which are often invisible). This leads to false conclusions because the data set is incomplete. We look at the winners and assume their strategy is the only correct one, forgetting the thousands who used the same strategy and failed.

Example

Looking at the reinforced planes that returned from battle, the engineers decided to add more armor to the parts with bullet holes. They forgot that the planes hit in the empty spots never came back.