ELI5 Edition Discord Version Try the Political Version

The Texas Sharpshooter

The Fallacy

Cherry-picking data clusters to suit an argument, or finding a pattern to fit a presumption.

Why it's wrong

This 'false cause' fallacy is coined after a marksman shooting randomly at barns and then painting bullseye targets around the spot where the most bullet holes appear, making it appear as if he's a really good shot. Clusters naturally appear by chance, but don't necessarily indicate that there is a causal relationship.

Example

The dating app claimed to be the most successful in the world by highlighting the three couples who got married, while ignoring the millions of users who never got a single match.